When I was younger, I used to play cards with my grandmother. She taught me something I never forgot: you cannot play the same game twice and expect the same result. The circumstances change. The players change. You have to see the difference.
Betting on preseason sports is like that. The numbers look like regular season games. The teams are the same. The rules are the same. But something is fundamentally different. If you do not see the difference, you lose money.
What is different in preseason? The stakes are not real. A coach does not care if his team loses a preseason game by 40 points. He cares that he tested his scheme. He cares that certain players stayed healthy. A coach might deliberately play a certain lineup for exactly 12 minutes to see how they work together, then sit them down. The scoreboard does not matter.
In the regular season, the coach cares about the scoreboard. In preseason, the coach cares about information gathering. This is why preseason games are unpredictable. The incentives are different.
How This Affects Betting
Regular season: Team A is strong. Team A plays Team B, who is weak. Team A should win. You can calculate odds.
Preseason: Team A played their first-string for one quarter. Team B played their entire roster for three quarters. Team B is more prepared. Team B might win. The odds do not capture this because the odds are built for regular season games.
This is where the money is. But it is also where losing happens most easily. Many bettors see preseason as a chance for easier money. The odds are less efficient. But the odds are less efficient because the games are less predictable, not more predictable.
What To Do
First: do not bet preseason at all. This is the safest answer. Preseason games are not meant to be bet. They are meant to be watched as preparation for the season. If you ignore this advice and bet anyway, at least understand what you are doing.
Second: if you must bet, focus on total points rather than sides. The total will be higher in preseason because coaches do not care about defense as much. The starters will play aggressively. The benches will be loose. The score will be high. Betting the over has a slight edge.
Third: focus on backups and young players. Which team is developing young talent? Which team has injury questions? Preseason matters because it answers these questions. If you can identify which team benefits more from preseason play (because they have uncertainty to resolve), you can get an edge. But this requires deep knowledge of team rosters and coaching philosophy.
Fourth: be aware of rest. Some teams rest starters in preseason. Some teams do not. The Belichick New England Patriots played their starters hard in preseason. The Bellichick-era Patriots were overvalued in preseason. Coaches know this. They use preseason differently.
The Real Lesson
My grandmother would say: do not assume the structure of the game is the same just because it looks similar. In preseason, the payoff structure for the coaches is completely different. This changes everything.
If you understand preseason betting at all, you understand it this way: the odds are built by sharp bettors who understand regular season value. The odds are not adjusted heavily for preseason. This means public bettors will misprice these games significantly. But they will misprice them in both directions. Some games will be bet too high. Some will be bet too low. Without deep knowledge, you cannot tell the difference.
So my advice is simple: in preseason, watch. Learn. Be patient. The regular season will come. That is when the real games are played.
